economy
March 24, 2026
Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic won't return to normal for months, Kalshi bettors predict
Prediction market bettors aren't confident that the vital Middle Eastern oil passageway will reopen anytime soon.
TL;DR
- Prediction market bettors have low confidence in the Strait of Hormuz reopening to normal tanker traffic before April 15.
- Kalshi odds indicate a less than 25% chance of normalization by April 15, but improve to over 67% by June 1 and 76% by July 1.
- A return to normal is defined as the seven-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls topping 60.
- President Trump suggested the Strait could reopen soon as part of a deal with Iran, involving joint control.
- News of potential U.S.-Iran talks led to stock market rallies, seeking a ceasefire.
- The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's crude oil transited before the war, has become a conflict flash point.
- Iran has halted trade between the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea in response to U.S.-Israeli military actions.
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