What will it take for ships to start sailing through the Strait of Hormuz again?

March 13, 2026

TL;DR

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from an average of 100 vessels per day to one or two after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
The closure of the strait, which handles 20% of daily global oil shipments, is seen as a primary cause of soaring energy prices.
Commercial ships are hesitant to navigate the strait due to perceived risk from Iranian drone attacks and a withdrawal of insurance coverage.
Reopening the strait requires clear signals of safety, a sustained reduction in military threats, and a succession of successful crossings to assure operators and insurers.
The U.S. offer of insurance and Navy escorts is viewed with skepticism by some shipping company CEOs, who prioritize the safety of their crews.
Until threats are credibly lifted through a ceasefire or negotiated arrangement, meaningful numbers of commercial vessels are unlikely to return.

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