economy
February 11, 2026
What the 10-year Treasury yield's chart tells us about where stocks are heading
If rates move considerably higher after the strong run in equities, the pairing could create a bearish scenario, Frank Cappelleri says.
TL;DR
- The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield's 4.2% mark has been a critical level, acting as support and then resistance over the past year.
- A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed since early 2023, similar to one seen from 2020-2022, but with weaker momentum indicators (RSI).
- Historical context from the 1960s suggests a potential multi-decade rise in rates, with the current long-term bias remaining higher.
- The speed of yield increases, rather than the absolute level, is crucial for stock market stability.
- A rapid surge in yields combined with a strong equity run could create a bearish scenario for stocks, similar to late 2021/early 2022.
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