Slowing U.S. population growth could reduce GDP by $100 billion in 2026, analysis finds

February 11, 2026

TL;DR

Slowing U.S. population growth could reduce GDP by $104 billion by 2026.
The decline in growth is attributed to low birth rates and a sharp drop in immigration.
The "growth gap" of 1.4 million people in 2025 would have contributed $86 billion in household spending and supported 741,500 jobs.
Slower growth impacts industries reliant on new household formation, like housing, construction, and health care.
Potential positive effect: easing upward pressure on housing prices, making homeownership more attainable.
Focus should be on boosting worker productivity and increasing labor force participation.
Economic growth in the U.S. is currently picking up, faster than the typical pace.

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