UK government borrowing costs seesaw as official economic forecasts released early

The Autumn Budget is due to be announced shortly.

UK government borrowing costs seesaw as official economic forecasts released early

TL;DR

  • U.K. government borrowing costs fluctuated after the OBR unexpectedly released economic and fiscal forecasts before the Autumn Budget.
  • The OBR cited a technical error for the premature release of its report, which has since been removed from its website.
  • The leaked report detailed planned tax increases, including freezes on income tax thresholds, taxes on private pension contributions exceeding £2,000 annually, new mileage-based taxes on electric vehicles, and an annual tax on homes valued above £2 million.
  • Taxes on dividends, property, and savings income are set to increase by 2 percentage points, expected to raise £2.1 billion.
  • New spending policies, including the removal of the two-child limit on welfare, are projected to increase public borrowing by £7 billion next year and £11 billion by 2029-30.
  • The OBR lowered its U.K. growth forecast to an average of 1.5% over the next five years due to lower underlying productivity growth.
  • The British pound gained against the U.S. dollar and the euro as the budget was unveiled.
  • Investors had expressed a desire for tax hikes and spending cuts from the government.
  • The U.K. government currently faces the highest borrowing costs among G7 nations.
  • Past unfunded tax cuts in 2022 led to a bond sell-off and the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss.