politics
What went wrong with polling in two major Democratic primaries
Polling misses across Democratic primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan have exposed a mix of challenges for the industry, from late-breaking voters and unexpected turnout to a harder-to-solve problem of reaching the voters who ultimately decide elections.
TL;DR
- Polling failed to accurately predict outcomes in Wisconsin and Michigan Democratic primaries.
- Discrepancies were significant, with expected frontrunners winning by very small margins or losing unexpectedly.
- Challenges identified include late-breaking voters, unexpected turnout, and difficulty reaching the electorate that decides elections.