Suspected insider accounts net $2.4 million on Polymarket Iran war bets with 98% win rate, firm finds
Nine connected Polymarket accounts have raked in more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military actions in what digital detectives from the data analytics firm Bubblemaps have identified as a potentially egregious case of insider trading.
TL;DR
- Nine linked Polymarket accounts allegedly made over $2.4 million by betting on U.S. military actions, achieving a 98% win rate.
- Digital detectives from Bubblemaps flagged this pattern as a potential egregious case of insider trading.
- The U.S. prohibits military bets on platforms like Polymarket, but users can bypass restrictions using VPNs.
- A U.S. Army soldier was indicted for allegedly using classified information to win over $400,000 on Polymarket.
- Suspiciously timed oil market trades around positive news about U.S.-Iran relations are also under federal investigation.
- A journalist received threats after writing about an Iranian strike, which contradicted outcomes on Polymarket war bets.
- Polymarket states it cooperates with law enforcement and identifies suspicious activity, while the CFTC faces declining staffing and enforcement actions.