economy
Kalshi traders see April jobs report coming in better than economists' estimates
The figure is higher than consensus estimates for 57,000 jobs gained in April, according to analysts polled by FactSet.
TL;DR
- Kalshi traders predict a higher-than-consensus estimate for the April labor market report.
- There's about a 50% chance nonfarm payrolls will be 66,000 jobs or more, exceeding economists' predictions.
- Traders see an 81% chance of positive job growth in the report.
- Polymarket traders have a more pessimistic outlook, with the most likely scenario being 0-50,000 jobs created.
- Nonfarm payroll growth has been volatile, with job losses in five of the last ten months.