politics
March 23, 2026
Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info’
TL;DR
- Multiple newly created accounts on Polymarket placed nearly $70,000 in bets on a US-Iran ceasefire.
- Experts suggest these bets show signs of insider trading due to account creation timing and betting patterns.
- Similar suspicious betting activity was noted before previous US strikes on Iran.
- Polymarket accounts are anonymous, making owner tracing difficult.
- The platform's own probability of a ceasefire has significantly increased.
- Polymarket, which has received regulatory scrutiny, is used for betting on geopolitical events.
- A ceasefire settlement requires official confirmation from both the US and Iran governments.
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