economy
Why This Summer’s Airfares Are Unaffordable—And Unpredictable
The normal patterns of price changes may no longer hold true.
TL;DR
- Airfare prediction sites like Hopper, Kayak, and Google Flights are less reliable due to recent global volatility.
- Exogenous shocks, such as geopolitical conflicts and a surge in jet fuel costs, are overwhelming historical data models.
- Airlines' pricing is influenced by demand, competition, and input costs, with fuel prices being a significant recent factor.
- Sudden surcharges and flight cancellations, like those implemented by Japan Airlines and Lufthansa, are happening without algorithmic foresight.
- Some sites are limiting price predictions or offering only current prices due to market uncertainty.
- For certain domestic trips, multiple apps suggest waiting to book, but global events could cause prices to rise further.
- Savvy travelers may consider buying tickets sooner rather than later, or hedging with refundable tickets, as last-minute bargains may require flexibility and the potential savings might be small compared to price surges.