politics
April 4, 2026
America is about to hand Iraq to Iran again
As Iraq moves to form a new government, Washington is preparing to recognize the outcome as routine. It is not. What is emerging in Baghdad is a political system increasingly shaped by Iran, and recognizing it without conditions risks cementing that reality.
TL;DR
- U.S. policy assumes Iraqi elections produce independent governance, but Iran has deeply embedded itself in Iraq's political and security institutions.
- A network of over 200,000 Popular Mobilization Forces, integrated into the Iraqi state, maintains ties to Iran and operates with external command structures.
- Iran-aligned militias have conducted repeated attacks against U.S. forces, reflecting an ecosystem of influence advancing Iran's strategic objectives.
- Iranian officials, particularly through the Quds Force, have directly engaged Iraqi political leaders to shape post-election arrangements and key positions.
- Judicial decisions and the electoral system operate under concerns of political pressure, patronage networks, militia leverage, and coercion.
- Recognizing a government shaped by these networks signals acceptance of compromised institutions, undermining regional stability and U.S. partners.
- The U.S. should stop legitimizing outcomes that are not fully sovereign and recognize that stability built on compromised institutions is managed decline.
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