health
'Super El Niño' Could Bring Wet Winter and Flooding to Western US, Climate Scientists Warn
Weather system tied to warming sea surface expected to intensify in fall and winter, persisting until early spring 2027
TL;DR
- A strong 'super' El Niño is expected to develop, with above-average sea surface temperatures.
- Climate models suggest a wet winter for parts of the western and southeastern US, with elevated flood risk along coasts.
- California has a high chance of experiencing above-average rainfall, increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding, particularly during storm or king tide events.
- Historical El Niños have caused significant damage, including destroyed homes, flooding, storm-related deaths, and coastal erosion.
- The El Niño may not completely erase drought in the US southwest, and heavy rain could lead to flooding and loss of life.
- Areas along the US Gulf coast and East Coast, from Florida to the mid-Atlantic, also face a high probability of increased precipitation.
- Central and south Florida have historically experienced more severe weather, including tornadoes and floods, during El Niño years.
- Experts note that El Niño's effects are variable and can differ by region and by event.
- This El Niño event offers an opportunity to assess vulnerabilities to climate change impacts and prepare for future conditions.