sports
Underdog victories at the World Cup: what were the biggest and best upsets?
We’ve looked at data from USA 1994 onwards to see how and when classic upsets take place – and what that could mean for this year’s competition
TL;DR
- The World Cup has a history of underdog victories, with the 1950 USA defeat of England being an early example.
- Analysis of World Cup matches from 1993 onwards, using the Fifa men's world ranking system, quantifies upsets based on ranking disparity.
- Key upsets include Bulgaria beating Germany (1994), Nigeria defeating Spain (1998), South Korea reaching the semi-finals (2002), and Morocco's historic semi-final appearance (2022).
- Germany 2006 is noted as the most unpredictable modern World Cup with 21 upsets.
- The 2026 World Cup, with an expanded 48 teams, is anticipated to be highly unpredictable due to format changes, potential heat stress, and the inclusion of debutant nations.
- Potential upsets for the 2026 World Cup include Haiti vs. Scotland, New Zealand vs. Iran, and Cape Verde vs. Uruguay.