Who wins the re-redistricted House?
As President Donald Trump’s job approval sinks to or below 40% (depending on which poll you’re looking at), betting markets and political conventional wisdom are that his Republican Party is not necessarily doomed to lose its narrow House majority, nor is it at serious risk of losing its Senate majority.
TL;DR
- President Trump's job approval is below 40%, but betting markets and conventional wisdom suggest Republicans might not lose their House or Senate majorities.
- Court decisions on redistricting and a narrowing Democratic advantage in party identification contribute to this outlook.
- Republican-led redistricting in Texas, North Carolina, and Ohio aimed to gain House seats.
- Democrats retaliated with redistricting plans in California and Virginia, though a Virginia maneuver was later deemed unconstitutional.
- The U.S. Supreme Court ruling in *Callais v. Louisiana* on the Voting Rights Act has implications for redistricting.
- Florida Republicans passed a redrawing of districts predicted to add Republican seats.
- The uneven distribution of party voters benefits Republicans in single-member, equal-population districting.
- Current projections show a near-level playing field in House races, with a small number of toss-up seats.
- The election outcome could result in a narrow Democratic or Republican majority, or a very small net change from current numbers.
- Historically, the president's party often loses House seats, but exceptions exist.
- The current political climate is characterized by partisan parity and intense partisanship, similar to historical periods.