Iran war fallout raises odds of a U.S. recession, economists say

TL;DR

The Iran war has increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession within 12 months.
Higher global energy prices are projected to increase U.S. inflation, impacting consumer spending and economic growth.
Disruptions to oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz are a significant concern.
Rising prices for fertilizers are expected to increase U.S. food prices.
The transportation industry is affected by higher jet fuel costs, leading to surcharges and price hikes.
Uncertainty related to the conflict may dampen consumer spending and business investment.
Some experts suggest the U.S. is less vulnerable due to its status as a major oil producer and more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Other factors like strong pre-conflict economic growth and investment in AI data centers and manufacturing may help mitigate the impact.

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