politics
February 20, 2026
Supreme Court Trump tariffs ruling could put U.S. on hook for $175 billion in refunds, estimate says
Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in his dissent, warned that "the refund process" for tariffs "is likely to be a 'mess,'" citing oral arguments
TL;DR
- The U.S. government may owe over $175 billion in refunds to importers due to illegally imposed tariffs by President Trump.
- The Supreme Court ruled in a 6-3 decision that the tariffs, imposed unilaterally by the President, are illegal.
- These tariffs were enacted using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a first for presidential tariffs.
- Justice Brett Kavanaugh warned that the process of refunding these tariffs could be a significant logistical challenge.
- The estimate from the Penn Wharton Budget Model places the potential refund amount at $175 billion.
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection previously stated that $133.5 billion in collected tariffs were at risk of refunds.
- These tariffs were considered to account for roughly 60% of tariffs issued to date.
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