Would you bet on the future of our planet?
Prediction markets are focusing on extreme weather and the climate crisis. But it’s led to questions about what exactly people are betting on
TL;DR
- Online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are now offering bets on weather and climate events.
- Kalshi has seen 500% growth in climate wagers, reaching a $1.1bn market.
- Some climate scientists are concerned that betting on climate events trivializes suffering and distracts from action.
- Betting on wildfires was banned by markets due to potential incentives for arson.
- Prediction markets view themselves as providing well-calibrated forecasting data.
- The UN has conceded that the target to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C is unlikely to be met.
- Certain worst-case climate scenarios are now considered less likely due to advances in clean energy.
- Natural feedback loops like thawing permafrost could accelerate global heating by up to 30%.