Trump keeps saying an Iran deal is close. Markets keep believing it
Analysts still assume that, despite the continued conflict, a deal will eventually be reached that ends the war and reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
TL;DR
- President Donald Trump has claimed dozens of times over three months that a peace deal with Iran is close to being signed.
- Despite these repeated claims, no deal has materialized, and Washington and Tehran appear further from an agreement than in mid-April.
- Stock and oil markets have consistently reacted to Trump's signals, often falling on optimistic news and rallying when optimism wanes.
- Market participants and analysts maintain hope that a deal will eventually be reached, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil-shipping route.
- Some political figures, like Rep. Carlos Gimenez, have expressed frustration with Trump's repeated claims, comparing the situation to repeated disappointments.
- Trump's claims have spanned from March, with early assertions of productive conversations, to recent statements suggesting a deal could be reached in 'two or three days'.
- While Trump's announcements influence markets, other factors like the AI trade and global economic forces also affect stock and oil prices.
- Despite assurances of progress, the U.S. and Iran have engaged in military strikes and accused each other of violating truces throughout the period.