tech
March 6, 2026
A Technology for a Low-Trust Society
Polymarket and Kalshi promise the wisdom of the crowds. They deliver something very different.
TL;DR
- Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to invest money in the outcomes of news events, framing bets as tradable "shares."
- Concerns exist about insider trading on these platforms, with examples including bets on political events and military operations.
- While platforms prohibit market manipulation, the ease of access to information and the financial incentives can lead to exploitation.
- Critics argue that prediction markets foster a "depravity economy" by allowing users to profit from human suffering, war, and death.
- Despite claims of providing accurate, unbiased forecasts, prediction markets can be manipulated by individuals with exclusive information, leading to skewed results.
- The platforms' business model may thrive in a low-trust society, as suspicion of motives makes the "logic of gambling" seem more rational.
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