economy
February 19, 2026
How the stock market may move on the Supreme Court's tariff decision
The Supreme Court is preparing to release its tariff ruling, potentially as soon as this week. JPMorgan's trading desk weighs in on how the market will react.
TL;DR
- The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to release its tariff ruling soon.
- JPMorgan's trading desk predicts varying stock market reactions based on the ruling's outcome.
- The most probable scenario (64% chance) is tariffs being struck down and immediately replaced, potentially causing an initial market rally.
- If tariffs are upheld (26% chance), the S&P 500 could decline, and the yield curve might see significant shifts due to inflation concerns.
- A less likely scenario (9% chance) involves tariffs being struck down and replaced after the midterms, potentially boosting the S&P 500 and Russell 2000.
- The least likely scenario (1% chance) is tariffs being struck down with no replacement, which could lead to the most significant market gains.
- The U.S. government has collected $124 billion in customs duties through tariffs in the fiscal year through January, a 304% increase from the same period in 2025.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserts the president has broad powers over import duties through the 1962 Trade Act.
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