politics
March 26, 2026
So far, China is winning the Iran war
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TL;DR
- The war in Iran has weakened U.S. military readiness and munitions, crucial for a potential conflict with China.
- U.S. relations with allies have been strained, while China's foreign policy predictability has been enhanced.
- China has ramped up energy production and diversified supply routes.
- The war has taught China to pressure the U.S. economically, especially concerning President Trump.
- Shortages in U.S. air defense interceptors are a concern, with significant supply shortfalls expected until 2029.
- The Chinese military benefits from the U.S. diversion in the Middle East, allowing for increased pressure on allies like Japan and the Philippines.
- The war has increased global energy costs, creating pressure on democratic governments.
- China has diversified its energy imports and used strategic reserves to maintain economic stability.
- China views the conquest of Taiwan as a crucial test of its destiny.
- The U.S. transactional relationship with Sunni Arab monarchies could be jeopardized by sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- China perceives Trump as unwilling to commit to a prolonged fight, a lesson it will apply to future crises.
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