economy
March 5, 2026
The February jobs numbers are coming out Friday. Here's what to expect
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect payroll growth of 50,000, following January's surprisingly high 130,000.
TL;DR
- The 2025 labor market was described as 'unstable' with minimal job growth.
- The 2026 labor market is being called 'stable,' despite similar conditions.
- Companies are experiencing a low-hire, low-fire environment due to strong demand but economic uncertainty.
- Federal Reserve officials and market economists are expressing more optimism about labor market stability.
- Subdued hiring rates are attributed to factors like immigration clampdowns and a limited labor pool.
- Most job gains in 2025 and early 2026 have been in health-care-related industries.
- Sectors like construction and technology are facing pressure, with AI adoption impacting job numbers.
- A strike at Kaiser Permanente may affect February's health-care job numbers.
- Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect 50,000 payroll growth for February, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.
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