economy
March 9, 2026
These retailers will be hit the most by the coming surge in gasoline prices
Off-price retailers such as Dollar General are likely to be hit the hardest by a potential surge in gasoline prices in the near future, per Wolfe Research.
TL;DR
- Off-price retailers are likely to face more pressure than other chain stores due to rising gasoline prices.
- Lower-income shoppers, who primarily shop at stores like Dollar General and Walmart, may be forced to reduce spending as gasoline prices increase.
- Crude oil prices have risen significantly since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, with WTI and Brent crude nearing $120 per barrel.
- For every $1 increase in oil price, consumer spending suffers a 0.7 percentage point decline.
- Dollar General, Walmart, and Advance Auto Parts are identified as stocks most likely to decline due to their lower-income customer base.
- Retailers with larger discretionary item mixes, such as Five Below and Target, may also experience hits as consumer confidence falls.
- Housing trade retailers relying on Chinese imports could face headwinds due to rising shipping costs and logistical issues.
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