economy
January 30, 2026
Tax refunds could be $1,000 higher this season, on average, White House says. How much you can expect
Tax refunds could be $1,000 higher this season, the White House said this week. But the average depends on your situation, experts say.

TL;DR
- President Donald Trump's tax legislation is expected to lead to larger tax refunds in 2026.
- Estimates suggest average refunds could increase by $1,000 or more.
- The Tax Foundation projects an average refund of $3,800 for tax year 2026, an increase of $748 from 2024.
- The Social Security Administration Commissioner anticipates $200 billion more in tax refunds in 2026.
- The size of the refund will vary significantly among taxpayers.
- Higher earners and those with tip or overtime income may see larger refunds compared to lower- to middle-class W-2 workers.
- Standard deductions increased for 2025, and the SALT deduction limit was also raised.
- A separate report projects about 60% of filers will see an average tax cut of nearly $1,200 for 2025 returns, with middle- and high-income filers likely receiving larger cuts.
- The translation of tax cuts into refunds depends on individual characteristics and paycheck withholding adjustments.
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