economy

January 30, 2026

Tax refunds could be $1,000 higher this season, on average, White House says. How much you can expect

Tax refunds could be $1,000 higher this season, the White House said this week. But the average depends on your situation, experts say.

Tax refunds could be $1,000 higher this season, on average, White House says. How much you can expect

TL;DR

  • President Donald Trump's tax legislation is expected to lead to larger tax refunds in 2026.
  • Estimates suggest average refunds could increase by $1,000 or more.
  • The Tax Foundation projects an average refund of $3,800 for tax year 2026, an increase of $748 from 2024.
  • The Social Security Administration Commissioner anticipates $200 billion more in tax refunds in 2026.
  • The size of the refund will vary significantly among taxpayers.
  • Higher earners and those with tip or overtime income may see larger refunds compared to lower- to middle-class W-2 workers.
  • Standard deductions increased for 2025, and the SALT deduction limit was also raised.
  • A separate report projects about 60% of filers will see an average tax cut of nearly $1,200 for 2025 returns, with middle- and high-income filers likely receiving larger cuts.
  • The translation of tax cuts into refunds depends on individual characteristics and paycheck withholding adjustments.

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