politics
March 16, 2026
Iran's Hormuz Blockade is its Strongest Card Against Trump and Israel. It Won't Back Down Easily
By imposing massive costs on the global economy, the Iranian government hopes to cause the US to back down.
TL;DR
- Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted global oil supplies, causing a surge in prices.
- The Iranian government aims to re-establish deterrence by imposing economic costs on the global economy.
- The US military objectives are limited to destroying Iranian military industrial sites and strike capabilities, but political objectives are broader.
- Donald Trump's political objectives go beyond degrading Iran's power, including regime change.
- Israel desires the collapse of the Iranian regime or internal strife to extend the timeline of Iran posing a threat.
- Russia benefits from the crisis, having an incentive to prolong it.
- The Gulf states and Europe desire a quick end to the crisis due to economic risks.
- Decentralized command and control within Iran's IRGC could lead to continued attacks even if the government seeks de-escalation.
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