economy
March 12, 2026
A global food price shock looms as Middle East war rages on. Here's who will be hit hardest
A widening Middle East conflict that disrupts trade through the Strait of Hormuz could ripple far beyond the energy markets, risking a spike in global food prices.
TL;DR
- The Middle East conflict's disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz could cause a global food price spike.
- The strait is a key route for oil, gas, and fertilizers critical to global agriculture.
- Higher energy and fertilizer costs risk reigniting global food inflation.
- Countries dependent on food imports and fertilizers may face rising costs within weeks.
- The GCC region is most exposed to short-term food price spikes due to reliance on maritime imports through Hormuz.
- Sub-Saharan Africa is identified as the most vulnerable region, with over 90% of its fertilizer imported.
- South and Southeast Asia also face mounting cost pressures, relying on imported fertilizers from the Gulf.
- Prolonged disruptions could lead to reduced crop yields and higher food prices globally.
- Rising energy costs throughout the food supply chain could also drive food inflation.
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