economy
February 20, 2026
The Best Trades After Geopolitical Shocks as Possible Iran Conflict Looms
Bank of America has a playbook for how various assets have performed in the aftermath of seismic geopolitical events.
TL;DR
- Crude oil showed the strongest historical median performance, rallying over 18% three months after geopolitical events.
- Gold gained a median of approximately 6% in the three months following the start of a crisis.
- U.S. stocks have historically added less than 5% in the same post-crisis timeframe.
- Oil prices surged over 5% this week due to the growing likelihood of military action in the Middle East.
- President Trump is considering limited military strikes against Iran and will make a decision in the coming weeks.
- A second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is heading to the Persian Gulf.
Continue reading the original article