economy
May 4, 2026
Traders are doubtful Cohen's GameStop can pull off monster eBay acquisition
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket give the company just a 25% and 15% chance, respectively, of successfully buying the online marketplace.
TL;DR
- Prediction market traders have low confidence in GameStop's proposed acquisition of eBay.
- Kalshi traders estimate a 26% chance for GameStop to acquire eBay in 2026.
- GameStop announced the acquisition bid valued at $55.5 billion.
- Questions exist regarding GameStop's ability to finance the deal, given its market cap is under $11.9 billion.
- CEO Ryan Cohen stated the deal would be half cash, half stock, with the ability to issue stock.
- GameStop shares fell nearly 8% on Monday, while eBay shares rose more than 5.5%.
- Polymarket traders assigned an even lower probability, 15%, to GameStop completing the takeover.