economy
March 13, 2026
The stock market is getting very close to a point that would trigger a policy response, BofA's Hartnett says
With oil soaring and the Iran war threatening global stability, Hartnett said it probably won't take much more before someone steps in.
TL;DR
- A further stock market drop could trigger a policy response from the White House and Federal Reserve.
- The S&P 500 is off roughly 5% from its peak, with a drop below 6,600 potentially acting as a trigger.
- Heightened headline risk includes soaring oil prices and the protracted war with Iran.
- Hartnett suggests investors fade trades like oil over $100, the U.S. dollar index above 100, and the 30-year Treasury yield above 5%.
- He believes software, bank loans, and bitcoin have hit a trough, while the Magnificent Seven stocks and private credit have not.
- Gold, semiconductors, metals, emerging markets, European and bank stocks are considered overbought and are selling off.
- Potential policy responses could include de-escalation of the war, tariff retreats, or Fed easing actions like rate cuts or bond purchases.
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