Analysis: The U.S. is running out of ways to get oil prices down. It is up to the military.

March 13, 2026

TL;DR

The Trump administration's measures to counter Iran-driven oil price hikes are failing, with prices remaining stubbornly high.
Unlike past crises, this one cannot be solved through economic policy alone; a military breakthrough is needed to reduce energy prices.
The war is estimated to cut global oil supply by 8 million barrels a day, impacting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Releasing oil from strategic reserves, a key administration plan, will likely not make up half of the daily shortfall.
Easing sanctions on Russian oil and backing insurance for ships are other measures being attempted.
Oil prices continue to rise, with significant increases in the cost of a gallon of regular and a barrel of oil.
The president views the short-term cost of higher prices as necessary to end the Iranian nuclear program threat.
The conflict driver is military, not economic policy, preventing Trump from pivoting as he has in past economic disruptions.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz requires Iran to cease shooting at shipping, which has not happened despite U.S. and Israeli actions.
The U.S. military's ability to escort tankers may offer limited relief, and normal oil traffic is unlikely in the short term.
Despite potential economic resilience, high oil prices will persist until Iran caves or the U.S. military prevails.

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