The Election Israel Has Waited Three Years For
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TL;DR
- Israel is approaching an election three years after the October 7th attack, the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.
- The incumbent government claims extraordinary military achievements against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, re-establishing deterrence.
- Critics question the government's lack of accountability for the October 7th catastrophe and its failure to establish an independent inquiry.
- The government has struggled to anticipate threats and convert military success into lasting strategic gains, leaving the end state for its military power unclear.
- Regional realignments, such as Saudi Arabia building security relationships independent of Israel and the formation of a defense pact including Turkey, indicate a strategic failure for Israeli diplomacy.
- Missed opportunities for peace exist with Lebanon and Syria, where diplomatic openings are being hampered by Israel's focus on military control rather than political settlements.
- The Palestinian issue remains a significant obstacle to regional integration and normalization, despite efforts to bypass it.
- Israel's standing in the West has deteriorated, with unfavorable views increasing in the US and Europe, straining alliances.
- Voters will evaluate whether the government has learned from failures and built a more secure Israel, with the assessment suggesting its record is incomplete.