Iran Got a Great Deal That It Could Still Squander
For some forces in Iran, no agreement is a good agreement with the United States.
TL;DR
- The U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding releasing frozen Iranian assets, easing oil sale restrictions, and lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Hard-liners in Iran oppose the deal, viewing any agreement with the U.S. as a normalization of contact and a threat to their anti-Western ideology.
- The memorandum has majority support from Iran's military and political leaders, including the National Security Council and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
- The deal is considered a victory for President Masud Pezeshkian and his reformist allies, though pro-reform groups demand further rights and freedoms.
- Iran's history is marked by a struggle between developmentalists seeking economic progress and ideologues committed to anti-Americanism, with the latter often prevailing.
- The supreme leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, endorsed the deal despite reservations, signaling a potential shift in approach to face-to-face meetings with Americans.
- The memorandum is a precursor to a more crucial nuclear deal, which could provide significant economic relief for Iran.
- Past attempts at diplomatic breakthroughs, such as under Presidents Rafsanjani and Rouhani, have ultimately been stymied by internal opposition or external factors.
- The current leaders must overcome internal divisions and hard-liner opposition to secure lasting benefits from the agreement.