economy
March 11, 2026
Social Security 2027 cost-of-living adjustment forecast may rise with high oil prices
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 may be 1.7% to 2.8%, according to new estimates. But that could increase if inflation climbs higher.
TL;DR
- Geopolitical tensions are increasing oil prices, which may lead to higher inflation and a revised Social Security COLA forecast for 2027.
- Independent analyst Mary Johnson estimates the 2027 COLA at 1.7%, an increase from last month's 1.2% projection, due to rising oil prices.
- The Senior Citizens League forecasts an unchanged 2.8% COLA for 2027.
- Recent inflation data for February showed a 2.4% 12-month increase, but did not include the impact of recent oil price shocks from the Iran war.
- Rising costs for home heating oil, natural gas, and electricity are already affecting retirees, and tariff policies could further increase consumer costs.
- The Social Security COLA is determined by comparing third-quarter inflation data year-over-year using the CPI-W.
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