sports
World Cup glory could all come down to penalties. What’s the best strategy?
As the knockout stages begin, penalties are inevitable. What do the stats say about the best ways to take them?
TL;DR
- Winning the coin toss is advantageous in penalty shootouts, with teams winning the toss having a higher success rate.
- Effective penalty techniques and shot placement can differ significantly between leagues and countries (e.g., Premier League vs. La Liga).
- A long run-up (over six steps) is consistently associated with successful penalties, while short run-ups offer little advantage.
- Shots at approximately 75% of maximum power are suggested to have the highest success rate, balancing power and accuracy.
- Placement shots (inside of the foot) are favored in some leagues (e.g., Premier League), while powerful shots (instep) are preferred in others.
- Targeting the upper sections of the goal is harder to save but more likely to miss; players often prefer to aim lower for a higher chance of being on target.
- Shooting centrally can be effective, especially aiming high, but unpredictability is argued to be a key strategy due to goalkeeper tendencies.
- Goalkeepers tend to dive left or right, even though a significant percentage of shots go down the middle, possibly due to a bias towards action.