politics
March 15, 2026
This Year’s Oscar Winners Will (And Should) Be …
The front-runners for some of the ceremony’s biggest prizes are far from certain.
TL;DR
- The author finds the extended Oscar season draining, exacerbated by the Winter Olympics pushing the ceremony to mid-March.
- Despite the season's length, 2025 was a strong year for cinema, with 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' being front-runners for Best Picture.
- Predictions are provided for the 'big eight' awards, including potential winners and preferred choices.
- Jessie Buckley is predicted to win Best Actress for 'Hamnet,' though Rose Byrne is favored by the author.
- Michael B. Jordan is favored to win Best Actor for 'Sinners,' with Wagner Moura being the author's preferred choice.
- Amy Madigan is predicted to win Best Supporting Actress for 'Weapons,' while Teyana Taylor is the author's preferred winner for 'One Battle After Another'.
- Sean Penn is predicted to win Best Supporting Actor for 'One Battle After Another,' but Benicio del Toro is the author's preferred choice.
- Ryan Coogler is predicted to win Best Original Screenplay for 'Sinners,' and the author agrees.
- Paul Thomas Anderson is predicted to win Best Adapted Screenplay for 'One Battle After Another,' and the author agrees.
- Paul Thomas Anderson is heavily favored to win Best Director for 'One Battle After Another,' and the author agrees.
- 'One Battle After Another' is the strong favorite to win Best Picture, with 'Sinners' as a potential challenger.