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February 10, 2026

Iran’s shadow fleet of old tankers a ticking bomb for sea life, say experts

Exclusive: Analysts say there will be oil spill catastrophe that could be far bigger than Exxon Valdez disaster

Iran’s shadow fleet of old tankers a ticking bomb for sea life, say experts

TL;DR

  • Iran's shadow fleet of oil tankers is described as a "ticking time bomb" by maritime intelligence analysts.
  • Half of the 29 assessed Iranian vessels are older than the recommended 20-year safe service life.
  • Seven vessels are in an "extreme risk" category, being over 25 years old, with three over 30 years old.
  • Five ageing vessels are 'very large crude carriers' capable of holding 300,000 tonnes of oil.
  • Shadow fleet tankers are typically uninsured, meaning cleanup costs for spills fall on the host country, estimated between $860 million and $1.6 billion.
  • The potential for an oil spill is significant, possibly far exceeding the 37,000 tonnes released by the Exxon Valdez.
  • The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is reviewing regulations to address illegal activities and improve transparency in ship registration.
  • The UK has taken action against suspected shadow fleet vessels, challenging around 600 since October 2024.

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