Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it sent an analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here's what they learned
Before the U.S and Israel began their war against Iran, about 20% of the world's oil was shipped through the narrow Strait of Hormuz.
TL;DR
- Citrini Research reportedly sent an analyst to Oman's Musandam Peninsula to observe Strait of Hormuz shipping activity.
- The analyst found that vessel traffic is moving through the strait, with around 15 ships per day recently.
- Citrini claims actual shipping volume is higher than data suggests because many vessels turn off their AIS transponders.
- The firm suggests Iran is selectively allowing ships to pass, creating a 'functional checkpoint' rather than a blockade.
- Citrini expects a prolonged disruption and a permanent risk premium in oil markets, favoring longer-dated crude contracts.