economy

January 13, 2026

CPI gave Wall Street some good news. It won’t be enough for the Fed to cut rates this month

Don't hold your breath for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month.

CPI gave Wall Street some good news. It won’t be enough for the Fed to cut rates this month

TL;DR

  • December CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-on-year, meeting consensus estimates.
  • Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations.
  • Despite a slight cooling in inflation, the labor market remains strong, which may deter the Fed from cutting rates.
  • The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 95% certainty that the Fed will hold its overnight rate at the upcoming policy meeting.
  • Analysts suggest that while inflation is trending lower, it remains above the Fed's 2% target.
  • The government shutdown and upcoming new Fed chair appointee are cited as potential factors influencing Fed policy.

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