economy
January 15, 2026
College students and teens could be fueling the prediction markets boom
Where sports betting is legal, it's often limited to those 21 years or older. Kalshi and Polymarket are open to anyone 18 or older, with some exceptions.
TL;DR
- Prediction market trading volume is booming, potentially driven by 18- to 20-year-olds unable to legally gamble in most states.
- Kalshi is seeing higher trading volume in college football than in the NFL and NBA.
- Prediction markets are filling a gap in states where online sports betting is not legal or is restricted to those 21 and older.
- Juice Reel data shows higher prediction market uptake in states without legal sports betting, such as California and Texas.
- New York, despite having legal sports betting, also shows a high connection rate to prediction markets, possibly due to financial traders.
- Experienced gamblers are moving to prediction markets to place larger bets than allowed on traditional sportsbooks.
- Prediction markets account for a smaller number of bets but a larger portion of the handle compared to regulated sportsbooks.
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