economy

January 14, 2026

There's a big move higher brewing in the energy sector, according to the charts

Frank Cappelleri looks at the technicals in the XLE.

There's a big move higher brewing in the energy sector, according to the charts

TL;DR

  • XLE has rallied strongly since mid-December and broken through the upper boundary of its rising trading channel.
  • A weekly chart shows XLE has moved above a key two-year downtrend line drawn from early April all-time highs.
  • Energy has underperformed the S&P 500 since late 2022, with the recent bounce being minimal in context.
  • Historically, XLE outperformance has coincided with S&P 500 uptrends, not necessarily declines.
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) has broken out to new all-time highs after a three-year trading range, suggesting a potential multiyear advance.
  • This XOM breakout is considered significant on a multi-decade basis, historically leading to sustained upside.

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