Kalshi Traders See Low Likelihood of Major Crypto Bill Becoming Law This Year
The White House has pushed for Congress to pass the Clarity Act, a bill on crypto regulation. Kalshi traders see little chance the bill becomes law this year.
TL;DR
- Kalshi traders speculate that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a crypto regulatory framework bill, is unlikely to become law by the end of the year.
- The bill, which received bipartisan support in the House in July 2025, faces a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15.
- The White House, including President Trump, has urged Congress to pass the legislation.
- Even with Bitcoin's recent surge, traders assign less than a 25% chance for the bill's passage by year-end and less than 50% odds for implementation by April 2027.
- CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that if the Clarity Act stalls due to obstruction, the CFTC will use its existing authorities to regulate crypto asset markets.