economy
A 'perfect storm' points to a much smaller U.S. auto market by 2040
The auto industry is selling fewer cars--one forecaster says this is a fundamental change, and it is going to get worse.
TL;DR
- U.S. auto sales may fall by over 2 million units by 2040 compared to current forecasts.
- Declining birth rates, which are below replacement levels, are a primary driver of the projected market shrinkage.
- Changing consumer behavior, including delayed driver's license acquisition and increased use of ride-sharing, impacts demand.
- High vehicle prices and the increasing availability of affordable alternatives are deterring new car purchases.
- The longevity of vehicles is increasing, with cars lasting a record 12.8 years on average.
- Restrictive immigration policies could reduce net migration rates, further impacting population growth.
- The rise of autonomous vehicles and robotaxis could further decrease the need for personal vehicle ownership.
- The U.S. auto market is expected to become more competitive, potentially leading to consolidation among automakers and brands.