Here’s what to expect for commercial real estate in 2026
Experts and research firms forecast a year of stabilization and recovery for commercial real estate in 2026.
TL;DR
- The commercial real estate (CRE) outlook for 2026 is shaped by a slowing economy and increased costs in 2025, but is buoyed by falling interest rates and a cautious return of capital.
- Industry leaders express optimism for 2026, with surveys indicating expectations of revenue improvement and a belief that the market has moved past peak uncertainty.
- Capital markets are reawakening, with Colliers forecasting a 15-20% increase in sales volume and CoStar noting rising deal activity and banks easing back into CRE lending.
- Specific sectors like office are expected to bottom out, with vacancy rates dropping, while industrial demand is projected to jump due to reshoring and manufacturing.
- Retail is undergoing a shift towards smaller footprints and mixed-use environments, though tariffs pose a risk to consumer spending.
- Multifamily rents may ease due to new supply, but the sector is expected to remain a leader in investment sales volume.
- Data centers are a bright spot with high demand, but face challenges in financing, grid capacity, and local politics.
- REITs, which lagged in 2025, are poised for potential outperformance in 2026 as public and private valuations converge.