economy
Cuba could be the next Hong Kong. Here’s what it would take
We’ve been thinking about Cuba a lot lately. One of us, whose mother fled the island with her parents, grew up in a Cuban exile community shaped by stories, grief, and a stubborn belief that things could one day be different. The other has spent four decades at the intersection of policy and politics, watching administration after administration fail to turn that hope into reality.
TL;DR
- Cuba's strategic location, educated population, and natural harbors provide a foundation for economic prosperity.
- The U.S. has leverage over Cuba, with the Trump administration engaging in talks that have opened doors for change.
- The Helms-Burton Act mandates specific conditions for lifting the embargo, including political prisoner liberation, legalization of parties and press, and free elections.
- Economic opening must be paired with genuine political freedom to prevent the rise of a new oligarchy.
- A transactional and strategic approach from Washington, involving conditionality and clear benchmarks, can drive reform.
- Key reforms include establishing property rights, the rule of law, low tariffs, free capital movement, a stable currency, flat tax rates, and streamlined business regulations.
- Reopening remittances can directly channel capital to Cuban families and entrepreneurs, stimulating bottom-up economic activity.
- Transparent privatization and resistance to cronyism are crucial to avoid post-communist transition pitfalls.
- A free and prosperous Cuba presents strategic and economic benefits for the United States, strengthening hemispheric security.
- While not an exact replica of Hong Kong, Cuba's opportunity is substantial if U.S. policy insists on freedom first, then economic partnership.