Will mortgage rates fall without a February Fed meeting? Experts weigh in

January 28, 2026

TL;DR

Mortgage rates have reached their lowest point in over three years, hovering just above 6% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Factors influencing this decline include a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase and previous Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Experts believe mortgage rates can still fall in February even without a Fed meeting, as they are influenced by market expectations of inflation and employment.
Key economic indicators like Core CPI inflation (currently 2.6%) and unemployment (currently 4.4%) can impact investor behavior in the bond market, potentially driving mortgage rates lower.
The 10-year Treasury yield is a good indicator to track, as mortgage rates typically follow its movement.
Administration mandates, such as MBS purchases, can also influence mortgage rates.
Most experts predict modest movement in mortgage rates for February, with potential for a gradual dip if inflation trends lower, rather than a sharp drop.
Predictions for February range from hovering around 6% to between 6% and 6.375%, with a greater chance of rates moving higher than much lower if inflation fears arise.
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the average 30-year mortgage rate to end the first quarter of 2026 at 6.4%, while Fannie Mae projects 6.1%.
Experts advise potential homebuyers to run the numbers and act when rates and payments fit their budget, especially with demand likely to rise during the spring homebuying season.

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