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March 13, 2026

The Guide #234: Five big questions before the 2026 Oscars

Where will the best picture gong go? Has Chalamet blown his chances? And will anyone speak out on Iran?

The Guide #234: Five big questions before the 2026 Oscars

TL;DR

  • The Guardian will offer comprehensive live coverage of the Oscars, including the red carpet and ceremony.
  • Analysis of the best picture race suggests 'One Battle After Another' is the frontrunner, but a 'Sinners' surge is a possibility.
  • Timothée Chalamet's best actor Oscar is seen as uncertain, with Michael B Jordan and Wagner Moura as potential beneficiaries of any slip-up.
  • Netflix's pursuit of a best picture Oscar may be re-evaluated given past disappointments, though future projects like 'The Adventures of Cliff Booth' could change this.
  • A new category for casting directors will be introduced at the Oscars in 2026, with Francine Maisler and Nina Gold as potential inaugural winners.
  • The ceremony's tone may be influenced by the ongoing war in the Middle East, potentially leading to political statements or wins for nominated Iranian films.

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