Trump's trade war creating economic 'mirage' with GDP forecasts, freight market disconnected: Shipping expert

February 5, 2026

TL;DR

Global GDP growth is projected to be steady at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, according to the IMF.
The global freight market is facing caution due to trade wars and a 'front-loading' of imports in 2025, which masked actual demand.
Freight volume growth is expected to struggle to absorb new vessel capacity, leading to pressure on freight rates.
IMF trade projections are based on monetary value, potentially obscuring weaker physical demand for volume-dense goods.
The return of vessels to the Red Sea route, after a period of reduced transit, is contributing to overcapacity.
A.P. Moller-Maersk announced job cuts due to vessel overcapacity and a 23% decline in average freight rates.
Trade is shifting from China to Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia.
Tariff uncertainty and potential new tariffs are creating a 'double-squeeze' on trade and supply chains.
The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) shows expansion in the U.S. freight market, but concerns remain about tariff inflation.
Inventory costs have increased, and warehousing capacity has decreased, with transportation prices rising rapidly.

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