health

February 11, 2026

Medicare spending expected to double in next decade, CBO says

Medicare spending is projected to double over the next decade due to rising healthcare costs and increased enrollment, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Medicare spending expected to double in next decade, CBO says

TL;DR

  • Medicare spending is projected to double over the next decade, reaching $2 trillion by 2036.
  • Rising healthcare costs and increased enrollment of baby boomers are the primary drivers of this spending increase.
  • The Medicare Part A trust fund is projected to become insolvent before 2036.
  • Once depleted, Medicare Part A would only be able to cover 89% of hospital-related costs.
  • Lower birth rates and slower growth in the working-age population contribute to the strain on the trust fund.
  • Legislative changes, such as increased tax rates, may be necessary to sustain Medicare.
  • Changes to Medicare have largely been avoided, with promises from President Trump not to cut the program.

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