economy

February 12, 2026

The stock market is expected to move big on Friday’s CPI. Here are the possible scenarios

Under the most likely scenario for the consumer inflation reading, the JPMorgan trading desk sees the S&P 500 gaining 0.25% to 0.75%.

The stock market is expected to move big on Friday’s CPI. Here are the possible scenarios

TL;DR

  • Markets have been turbulent, with investors moving away from technology stocks towards cyclical sectors.
  • JPMorgan's trading desk provided scenarios for Friday's CPI report and their potential effects on the S&P 500.
  • Economists expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.
  • JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli forecasts core CPI to increase 0.39% monthly and 2.6% annually.
  • The trading desk outlined probabilities and potential S&P 500 movements for different core CPI monthly increases.
  • The most likely scenario (30-40% chance) for core CPI MoM is between 0.35% and 0.4%, potentially leading to a 0.25% to 0.75% S&P 500 advance.

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