economy
February 5, 2026
ECB holds rates but it's not a 'non-event,' economists say. Here's why
Economists believe the central bank will be comfortable with the inflation rate where it is, for now, but are watching for signs of disinflation.
TL;DR
- ECB keeps policy rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive meeting.
- Inflation trajectory and economic conditions do not warrant a rate change.
- Outlook remains uncertain due to global trade policy and geopolitical tensions.
- Low unemployment, resilient private sector balance sheets, and public spending support growth.
- Euro's appreciation is a key concern, potentially leading to disinflation and undershooting the inflation target.
- ECB will maintain a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to policy.
- Economists suggest the ECB's risk assessment, especially regarding currency moves, is crucial for future policy direction.
- Some economists predict rates to remain at 2% through 2026, with a potential hike in mid-2027.
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